TO ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑ ΠΟΣΟΤΙΚΗΣ ΧΑΛΑΡΩΣΗΣ ΠΟΥ ΓΙΑ ΠΟΛΛΟΥΣ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΤΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΟΥΣ ΘΕΩΡΕΙΤΑΙ ΕΥΛΟΓΙΑ ΓΙΑ ΤΟ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΟ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΚΟ ΟΙΚΟΔΟΜΗΜΑ ΔΕΝ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΤΙΠΟΤΑ ΑΛΛΟ ΑΠΟ ΤΟ ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΟ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΟ ΣΚΑΝΔΑΛΟ ΠΟΥ ΣΥΜΒΑΙΝΕΙ ΣΕ ΠΑΓΚΟΣΜΙΟ ΕΠΙΠΕΔΟ ΓΙΑΤΙ ΔΕΝ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΤΙΠΟΤΑ ΑΛΛΟ ΑΠΟ ΕΝΑΝ ΣΧΕΔΙΑΣΜΟ ΠΟΥ ΕΚΤΕΛΕΙΤΑΙ ΚΑΙ ΕΧΕΙ ΣΚΟΠΟ ΝΑ ΟΡΙΣΕΙ ΤΟΥΣ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΚΕΣ ΩΣ ΚΥΡΙΑΡΧΟΥΣ ΤΗΣ ΠΑΓΚΟΣΜΙΑΣ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΑΣ
ΤΑ ΜΗ ΣΥΜΒΑΤΙΚΑ ΜΕΤΡΑ ΤΑ ΟΠΟΙΑ ΟΙ ΙΔΙΕΣ ΟΙ ΚΕΝΤΡΙΚΕΣ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΕΣ ΤΑ ΕΧΟΥΝ ΟΝΟΜΑΣΕΙ ΔΕΝ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΤΙΠΟΤΑ ΑΛΛΟ ΑΠΟ ΤΗΝ ΕΙΣΑΓΩΓΗ ΣΤΟ ΚΥΚΛΩΜΑ ΤΗΣ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΑΣ ΑΔΡΑΝΟΥΣ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΟΣ ΠΟΥ ΠΡΟΗΛΘΕ ΜΕΣΑ ΑΠΟ ΤΑ ΠΛΑΙΣΙΑ ΑΣΚΗΣΗΣ ΝΟΜΙΣΜΑΤΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΑΠΟΤΥΠΩΝΕΙ ΑΞΙΕΣ ΠΟΥ ΔΕΝ ΥΠΑΡΧΟΥΝ. ΧΑΡΑΚΤΗΡΙΣΤΙΚΗ ΕΙΝΑΙ Η ΕΡΕΥΝΑ ΠΟΥ ΔΗΜΟΣΙΕΥΕΙ Η ΓΝΩΣΤΗ ΕΛΒΕΤΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ CREDIT SUISSE
The Future of Monetary Policy Shaped by the Past
Central banks in advanced economies have been transformed dramatically over the past eight years. The latest Credit Suisse Research Institute report, “The Future of Monetary Policy”, looks at the changes they had to undergo since the financial crisis and at the challenges that await them going forward. The key questions remain which direction monetary policy ought to take next and whether it is possible to return to the pre-crisis “normal”.
How to Measure the “Unconventional” Measures?
Since the financial crisis of 2008, central banks have been operating in an emergency mode. In order to deal with the new post-crisis market conditions, they had to accept broadening their mandates beyond the traditionally defined macroeconomic targets, such as keeping prices stable and unemployment low, to include overseeing financial stability and economic growth. The challenge of achieving both the old and the new targets required central banks to introduce several “unconventional” tools, including quantitative easing (QE) and the negative interest rates policy (NIRP).
While many experts agree these actions served well the purpose of stabilizing the financial system, there is much more controversy around their impact on the economic recovery. Depending on – among other economic or political factors ‒ whether the diagnosis of secular stagnation is true or false, the path central banks will take next can be either normalization or further expansion of policy trends. The CSRI report “The Future of Monetary Policy” provides detailed analyses of both QE and NIRPs, and attempts to measure their success.
Designing Their Own Destiny
Broader mandates and the challenge of pioneering new policy tools are not the only tasks central banks have been charged with during the post-crisis years. They have also become actively involved in developing the new regulatory framework aimed at healing the financial sector. The new regulations have serious consequences for central banks themselves and will influence the definition of their future role. The report points out three implications the Basel III framework has for central banks: